NCAA Tournament Picks – Chalk vs. Upsets

When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, it’s generally a good rule to go chalk. The UMBC upset over #1 ranked Virginia in 2018 was absolutely thrilling but it had never happened in the 136 prior attempts and will likely not happen for another 50 years!

But there are certainly matchups where the odds are more favorable. Take the 5-seed vs 12-seed matchup. The actual stats on the matchups puts the odds around 64% for the 5-seed which makes taking the risk pretty good, especially if you’re in a bracket that rewards upsets. And now statistics are showing the 6-11 matchup is another great risk!

So who’s at risk? The pros think despite a great season, Mississippi State could falter against Liberty. And Oregon has been playing great down the stretch which could cause problems for Wisconsin.

Whatever you decide, the tournament never lets us down. We like Michigan State a lot and think that despite the great record, Gonzaga is vulnerable. Truth be told we’re not that great at selections but will be watching it all.

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